Highlights:
- India is projected to enter the World Bank’s upper-middle-income category by around 2030.
- Per capita GNI is expected to approach $4,000 within the next four years.
- India could become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028.
- Achieving high-income status by 2047 will require sustained per capita income growth of 7.5-9 per cent.
- Long-term reforms and strong nominal GDP growth are critical to meeting future thresholds.
India is on track to cross a major economic milestone within the next decade. According to a recent report by SBI Research, the country is expected to enter the World Bank’s upper-middle-income category by around 2030, supported by consistent growth in per capita income and a strong macroeconomic trajectory built over the past two decades.
The report estimates that India’s per capita gross national income (GNI) could reach approximately $4,000 within the next four years. This level would place India firmly within the upper-middle-income group, alongside economies such as China and Indonesia. India officially moved into the lower-middle-income category in 2007, after spending nearly six decades classified as a low-income country, underscoring the gradual but steady nature of its economic climb.
While income classification upgrades often lag broader economic expansion, India’s overall size is growing rapidly. SBI Research projects that India could become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028. In addition, the country is expected to reach a $5 trillion gross domestic product during the 2027–28 period, reflecting strong domestic demand, investment momentum, and structural reforms across key sectors.
Looking beyond 2030, the report evaluates India’s prospects of becoming a high-income country by 2047, coinciding with the centenary of independence. Based on the current World Bank high-income threshold of $13,936 per capita GNI, India would need to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 7.5 per cent in per capita income. Historically, this appears achievable, as India’s per capita GNI grew at an average compounded rate of about 8.3 between 2001 and 2024.
However, SBI Research cautions that income thresholds are not static. If the high-income benchmark rises to $18,000 over the next two decades, India would need to accelerate per capita GNI growth to roughly 8.9 per cent annually. Under this more demanding scenario, and assuming average population growth of about 0.6 per cent and a GDP deflator near 2 per cent, India’s nominal GDP in dollar terms would need to expand at an annual rate of roughly 11.5 per cent.
The report concludes that India’s transition into the upper-middle-income group is highly likely. The larger challenge lies in sustaining the pace of reforms, productivity gains, and investment required to reach high-income status. Long-term policy consistency, human capital development, and continued structural transformation will determine whether India can convert its scale and growth momentum into lasting prosperity by 2047.
