- The US has intensified military deployments in the Middle East amid stalled Iran talks.
- Geneva negotiations were reportedly viewed by Washington as unproductive.
- Iran has offered a temporary suspension of uranium enrichment for up to five years.
- Tehran seeks sanctions relief and access to frozen assets in exchange.
- Analysts warn a US strike could either weaken or consolidate Iran’s regime.
While attention has focused on the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington, the more consequential development may be the extensive US military buildup across the Middle East ordered by president Donald Trump. The scale and speed of these deployments suggest that a potential American strike on Iran could be far closer than many assume.
Reports emerging from Washington described recent nuclear talks in Geneva as unproductive, with U.S. officials allegedly dismissing them as inconsequential. The perception that diplomacy has stalled contributed to a spike in global oil prices and heightened speculation that American military preparations could soon culminate in action.
Whether these moves represent genuine war planning or a calculated strategy of coercive diplomacy remains unclear. However, the message to Tehran is unmistakable: negotiations are unfolding under intense pressure.
Iranian officials reject the notion that they are negotiating under duress, yet the surrounding military presence complicates that claim. Tehran has pushed back against suggestions it is stalling by insisting on indirect discussions and drafting “guiding principles” for follow-up meetings. Iranian representatives argue they were willing to extend the Geneva talks, but that US envoys cut them short due to other diplomatic commitments.
At the center of the diplomatic effort is Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who has been coordinating with Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Discussions have focused on how inspectors might regain access to Iranian nuclear sites and supervise the dilution of Iran’s approximately 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to more than 60 per cent purity.
Grossi has expressed cautious optimism, noting incremental progress but warning that time is limited. The outlines of a possible agreement are visible. Iran has reportedly offered to suspend domestic uranium enrichment for as long as five years and reduce its 60% enriched stockpile to levels between 3 per cent and 6 per cent. That proposal resembles aspects of the 2015 nuclear agreement, which required a longer suspension and stricter caps.
In return, Tehran seeks the lifting of banking and oil sanctions, access to frozen financial assets, and potentially expanded economic cooperation with the United States. For Trump, accepting such terms poses political and strategic challenges. The proposal echoes elements of the earlier nuclear deal he withdrew from in 2018. It also allows Iran to retain enrichment capabilities for civilian purposes and does not address its ballistic missile program, a key demand of Israel.
Complicating matters further, Iran’s leadership faces mounting domestic dissatisfaction. Some analysts argue that a U.S. strike could either destabilize the regime or consolidate it by rallying nationalist sentiment. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is believed to be navigating internal pressures while attempting to maintain unity within the political and military establishment.
The coming days may prove decisive. If negotiations collapse, Trump must weigh the risks of military action against the political costs of embracing a deal reminiscent of the one he once condemned. For now, diplomacy and deterrence are moving in tandem — and the line between them is growing increasingly thin.
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