India and the United States are moving steadily toward signing the first tranche of their bilateral trade agreement by the end of 2025. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal recently confirmed that despite global trade disruptions, negotiations between the two nations have advanced on two parallel tracks, one addressing broader trade issues and another focusing on immediate tariff concerns.
The anticipated deal aims to resolve the punitive US tariffs of nearly 50 per cent imposed on Indian goods, which had temporarily stalled or deferred multiple export orders. These tariffs were introduced in two phases: a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff in April, followed by an additional 25 per cent in August, linked to India’s procurement of Russian oil.
Analysts see strong revival in export demand
Pankaj Pandey, Head of Research at ICICI Securities, believes that rolling back the tariffs to competitive and historically acceptable levels would remove the business uncertainty faced by exporters. With duties expected to be normalised, he anticipates a sharp resurgence in trade flows between India and the US.
Exporters, particularly those dependent on the US market, are expected to benefit instantly as delayed shipment volumes resume and demand stabilizes. ICICI Direct, the retail division of ICICI Securities, has curated a 'One Click Portfolio' capturing stocks best positioned to gain from this policy shift. The basket features companies with strong fundamentals, global client exposure, and resilient business models capable of leveraging renewed export momentum.
Seven stocks identified as key beneficiaries
ICICI Direct’s recommended portfolio comprises seven companies spanning manufacturing, textiles, auto ancillaries, and specialty industrial products. The selected stocks and their respective weights are:
- Balkrishna Industries (16.3 per cent)
- Aeroflex Industries (15.5 per cent)
- Greenlam Industries (14.2 per cent)
- Elgi Equipments (14.2 per cent)
- Coforge (13.6 per cent)
- Indo Count Industries (13.2 per cent)
- Gokaldas Exports (13.0 per cent)
These firms possess strong export linkages and robust cost structures. The brokerage expects them to meaningfully gain once pricing competitiveness improves and US demand revives. The model portfolio has an approximate investment value of $157 and is benchmarked against the Nifty 500. It leans significantly toward small-cap companies (70.1 per cent), with the rest allocated to midcaps, signaling confidence in emerging high-growth exporters within India’s broader market.
Outperformance despite policy headwinds
According to ICICI Direct’s factsheet, the 'Beneficiaries of Trade Deal' portfolio has consistently outperformed the Nifty 500 index from November 2022 to November 2025.
This sustained performance, even through volatile policy periods, highlights the structural strength and competitiveness of India’s export-oriented businesses. As the trade deal approaches finalization, analysts expect the momentum to continue, driven by tariff relief, improved pricing visibility, and renewed US order flows. However, investors are advised to consult certified financial experts before making investment decisions, as brokerage recommendations reflect individual views.
