Modi's BJP will be clear winner in India polls, predicts American political expert

THE Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will win 305 seats (plus, minus 10) in the ongoing general elections, renowned American political scientist and global political risk consultant Ian Bremmer has told an Indian new channel in an exclusive interview.

Bremmer, founder of the Eurasia Group, New York-headquartered political risk consulting organisation, told NDTV Profit that from the global perspective, the Indian election is "the only thing that looks stable and consistent... everything else (including the US presidential election due in November) is problematic".

"... We have an enormous amount of macro-level geopolitical uncertainty and the future of globalisation is not going the way companies want it to. Politics is inserting itself into the global marketplace... wars, US-China relations, and the US election are all a big part of that," Bremmer, also the president of the group, was quoted as saying in the interview.

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"All of these not being managed well and these pressures are more negative. In fact, the only thing that looks stable and consistent, politically, is the India election. Everything else looks problematic."

When asked about his thoughts on the outcome of the elections that began on April 19 and will continue till June 1 before the results are announced on June 4, Bremmer said his group suggests that the BJP will win between 295 and 315 seats.

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If his prediction comes to be true, it will be adequate to secure Modi his third successive term as the prime minister after 2014 and 2019. In the Indian Lok Sabha or popularly elected Lower House of the parliament of 543 seats, a party/alliance required 272 (half plus one) seats to form government.

In the 2014 election, Modi's BJP won 282 seats (its National Democratic Alliance or NDA won 336) and in 2019, it won 303 (NDA won 351).

Bremmer, however, added that his interest is not confined to the numbers.

He said that of all the elections in the world, India, the largest democracy, has the "smoothest transition". According to him, there is not lot of uncertainty about the Indian political system.

The expert also lauded a "free and fair, and transparent" Indian electoral process.

"Modi is almost certainly going to win a third term on the back of pretty strong economic performance and consistent reform (and) that, in the grand scheme, is a very stabilising message," he was quoted as saying.

On India's economic future, Bremmer said that India, despite its "incredible demographic weight and strong intellectual capital" has underperformed as an economy.