• Saturday, May 18, 2024


India election poll of opinion polls: Modi likely to win but…

The PM’s BJP and its NDA is expected to win 365 seats, 12 more than its 2019 tally but much less than the aimed figure of 400 plus.

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi (Photo by EVELYN HOCKSTEIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

By: Shubham Ghosh

RESULTS of a poll of opinion polls that were released on Wednesday (17) predicted prime minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to win the seven-phase national elections starting Friday (19). However, they also expect the Hindu nationalist party and its alliance failing to cross 400 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha or the popularly elected Lower House of the Indian parliament, something their leaders and supporters have been claiming.

The poll of opinion polls released by Indian broadcaster NDTV looked into date from nine opinion polls, including three conducted by ABP-CVoter in December 2023 and March and April. It said while the BJP-led NDA might win 365 seats out of 543, which is more than three per cent more than the tally of 353 it had won in the 2019 elections, the opposition INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) could end up with 122 seats, marking a significant 35 per cent rise from the paltry score of 90 its predecessor United Progressive Alliance led by the Indian National Congress had won five years ago.

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The opposition’s tally of 90 in 2019 was 31 seats or 52 per cent more than its tally of 59 in 2014 when the NDA swept the polls with 336 seats. The NDA’s 2019 tally was five per cent more than that in 2014.

The poll also said that Modi’s BJP is likely to dominate the Hindi heartland and secure a resounding victory in eight states and Union Territories of India. It also showed that the party might face close contests in two key states — Maharashtra and West Bengal — that send the second (48) and third highest (42) number of parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha, respectively.

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The state of the opposition is contradictory in the two states. While the Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and Nationalist Congress Party of Sharad Pawar cemented their Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance in Maharashtra, in Bengal, local ruling party Trinamool Congress decided against making an alliance with the Congress in the state despite being part of the INDIA nationally.

The only time a party succeeded in winning more than 400 seats in a parliamentary election happened in 1984 when the Congress led by former Rajiv Gandhi won 414 seats.

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