Highlights:
Republicans have secured a closely watched congressional seat in Tennessee, but by a much slimmer margin than they enjoyed just over a year ago. US media projections show Republican candidate Matt Van Epps defeating Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly nine percentage points in a special election that became an early test of political momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms.
With all countries reporting, the result ensures Republicans maintain their narrow majority in the House of Representatives. However, the noticeable drop from their 22-point victory in the 2024 general election has sparked concern within the GOP. “It was dangerous,” Republican Senator Ted Cruz warned, pointing to what he described as softening support in a district long considered reliably conservative.
The 7th Congressional District, which spans from the Alabama border to Kentucky and includes parts of Nashville, has not elected a Democrat in more than 40 years. The seat became vacant when Republican Congressman Mark Green resigned in July to join the private sector. Both parties quickly poured millions into the race and dispatched top figures to campaign, including Democratic former Vice Presidents Kamala Harris and Al Gore, and Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Van Epps ran as a staunch ally of President Donald Trump, who held a virtual rally for him and endorsed him late in the GOP primary—an endorsement widely viewed as crucial. After his victory, Van Epps doubled down on his alignment with Trump, saying the results “showed running from Trump is how you lose, running with Trump is how you win.” He argued that abandoning what he called “common-sense policies” would be politically dangerous.
Trump celebrated the win on social media, praising Van Epps and claiming that Democrats “threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars.” Speaker Johnson also congratulated Van Epps, promising to work together on priorities such as lowering costs and strengthening border security.
Behn, who centered her campaign on affordability and local quality-of-life concerns, conceded the race but framed the close margin as evidence of new political possibilities in Tennessee. “The margin was close, and that can only be attributed to the thousands of volunteers who showed out,” she posted on X. “This is just the beginning.” She won only Davidson County, home to Nashville, but told supporters that getting so close in a deep-red district was “the beginning of something powerful.”
Some Democrats argued the outcome signaled Republican vulnerability. Democratic strategist Ian Russell said Trump “had to spend millions of dollars to hold this seat,” calling it “a very, very bad sign” for the GOP heading into the midterms. Even some Republicans expressed private concern, telling Politico the race was “too close for comfort.”
Senator Cruz suggested the results reflect a polarized electorate and said the 2026 midterms will hinge on voter turnout. “In a year, it’s going to be a turnout election,” he said. “Hate is a powerful motivator.”
Despite the closer-than-expected finish, Tennessee remains firmly Trump territory. Trump carried the state with 64% of the vote in 2024 and topped 60% in the two previous presidential elections. Van Epps, a military veteran who served nine tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, now heads to Washington following a victory that was narrower than Republicans expected, but a win nonetheless.
