- Markus Thielen sees Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by the end of 2026 as macroeconomic pressures support demand
- US government debt is approaching $40 trillion, while money market funds hold around $8 trillion
- Thielen expects Bitcoin to outperform Ethereum, citing concerns over the latter's ability to generate value for token holders
Bitcoin could climb towards $90,000 by the end of 2026 as rising government debt, persistent inflation and weakness in global bond markets encourage investors to look beyond traditional fixed-income assets, according to market analyst Markus Thielen.
The founder of 10x Research told Cointelegraph that the rapid growth of government borrowing is making bonds less attractive to some investors, particularly when annual debt expansion approaches eight per cent while bond yields remain around four to five per cent.
With US government debt nearing $40 trillion and approximately $8 trillion held in money market funds, Thielen believes substantial liquidity remains available to move into alternative investments, including Bitcoin and gold.
His outlook comes amid concerns about the sustainability of government borrowing and the purchasing power of traditional currencies. Persistent inflation and pressure on bond prices could encourage investors to reconsider how they preserve wealth over the longer term.
Thielen also dismissed suggestions that major initial public offerings (IPOs) from artificial intelligence companies OpenAI and Anthropic would necessarily divert capital away from cryptocurrencies. Instead, he argued that high-profile technology listings could attract additional investment into growth-oriented assets.
Can Bitcoin reach $90,000 before 2027?
Thielen compared Bitcoin's current technical structure with its market behaviour in early 2023, pointing to improving weekly relative strength index (RSI) readings and a pattern of higher lows as potential signs of a developing recovery.
He acknowledged that Bitcoin could experience another decline into the $70,000 range before regaining momentum. However, he expects the cryptocurrency to recover towards $90,000 by December, potentially helped by a more cautious approach from the US Federal Reserve.
Institutional participation has also changed Bitcoin's market dynamics, according to Thielen. He said its volatility had declined towards 30 per cent, compared with historical levels of around 60 to 80 per cent.
Lower volatility could mean future price movements develop differently from previous cryptocurrency rallies, with periods of sharp repricing followed by consolidation.
Quantum computing remains another concern for the digital asset market, particularly because of potential future threats to cryptographic security. However, Thielen believes broader economic conditions will have a greater influence on Bitcoin's near-term performance.
His forecast remains an individual market assessment rather than a guaranteed price target. Bitcoin continues to face significant risks from changes in monetary policy, investor sentiment and broader financial market conditions.
Why does Thielen expect Bitcoin to outperform Ethereum?
Thielen is also cautious about Ethereum's ability to generate sustained value for its token holders, despite its importance to the wider cryptocurrency ecosystem.
He argues that the growth of Layer-2 networks, which process transactions outside Ethereum's main blockchain, has weakened the network's fee generation and the amount of economic value captured directly by ETH holders.
He contrasted Ethereum's position with Hyperliquid, whose HYPE token has attracted investor interest through its revenue generation and token buyback mechanisms.
The comparison reflects a wider debate among cryptocurrency investors about whether the growth of blockchain activity necessarily translates into higher value for the underlying digital asset.
Ethereum remains a major platform for decentralised finance, stablecoins and tokenised assets. However, Thielen believes stronger network activity must translate into more sustainable value capture before he becomes more positive on its investment outlook.
For Bitcoin, the immediate question is whether macroeconomic pressures will be strong enough to support a recovery towards $90,000. While Thielen sees a favourable environment developing, the cryptocurrency's ability to reach that level will depend on liquidity conditions, institutional demand and the direction of global financial markets.
