• Thursday, March 28, 2024

Coronavirus

India’s Covid deaths, relative to infections, hit record high in June 

An elderly man on a wheelchair (C) escorted by a relative leaves after getting a dose of the Covishield vaccine against the Covid-19 coronavirus during a vaccination drive at Tagore Hall in Ahmedabad on July 6, 2021. (Photo by SAM PANTHAKY/AFP via Getty Images)

By: Pramod Kumar

AN analysis of Indian government data has revealed that the country’s Covid-19 deaths relative to infections hit a record high in June after cases peaked in early May.

There is mounting pressure on authorities to accurately report deaths from a second wave of the virus.

A big rise in infections in April and May, driven largely by the more infectious and dangerous Delta variant, brought India’s health system to its knees.

India has officially reported 403,281 deaths out of 29.75 million people who have contracted the virus.

Meanwhile, the country recorded the lowest daily death toll in around 90 days on Tuesday (6) at 553.

With 34,703 new cases, the total tally of Covid-19 cases climbed to 30,619,932.

While the country of 1.35 billion people has reported fewer deaths than the US and Brazil some experts believe its actual case and fatality numbers are several times higher.

Based on data reported by state authorities and collated by the federal health ministry, the Covid-19 case fatality rate (CFR) jumped to about three per cent in June from 1.26 per cent in October, the first full month after the peak of its first wave of infections.

India’s overall reported CFR is 1.31 per cent, one of the lowest in the world, which the government has highlighted as a sign of the effectiveness of its pandemic response.

“We knew in the early part of the second wave that the pandemic was mostly in northern India and the reporting there was not as good as other states,” said Chandrakant Lahariya, an epidemiologist and public health expert in New Delhi.

By contrast, the more developed southern states better-reported data when they got hit later, he said, adding that more deaths are being recorded now following a public outcry over undercounting.

The populous and poor northern state of Bihar, for example, raised its death count by about 4,000 on a single day in early June after a court-ordered an audit.

India’s worst-affected state of Maharashtra also raised its Covid-19 death toll sharply higher after the discovery of thousands of unreported cases.

The health ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

New variant

While reported infections have fallen fast since the May peak, deaths are not going down at the same rate, worrying some experts as lockdowns have been eased in many parts of the country.

“The Delta variant is both the most contagious variant and among the most dangerous variants in terms of infection fatality rates,” said Christophe Z Guilmoto, a demographer at the French Institute of Research for Development in New Delhi, who has studied Covid-19 mortality in India.

“It did play an increasing role at the end of India’s second wave, and this may explain why the daily count of deaths in India isn’t coming down as fast as we expected/hoped.”

To keep deaths low in any future wave, authorities will have to place restrictions early, when the rate of positive Covid-19 results rises, said Rajib Dasgupta, head of the Centre of Social Medicine & Community Health at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

According to the health ministry, India conducted 1,647,424 tests on Monday (5) taking the total cumulative tests in the country to 421,424,881.

The daily positivity rate was recorded at 2.11 per cent. It has been less than three per cent for 15 consecutive days, the ministry said.

Cumulative vaccine doses administered so far has reached 357.5 million under the nationwide vaccination drive.

India reported its first coronavirus case in the Southern state of Kerala on January 30, 2020.

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