Rumors about a possible merger between Tesla and SpaceX have been making the rounds on Wall Street, with some investors believing Elon Musk could eventually combine the two companies. Supporters of the idea say a merger could create one of the world's most powerful technology companies, bringing together artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, space technology, and robotics under one roof.
However, several analysts believe investors should not expect such a deal anytime soon.
Gary Black, co-founder of the Future Fund Active ETF, said many people underestimate the legal responsibilities involved in any merger. Although Elon Musk controls more than 80% of SpaceX's voting power, Black explained that the company's board still has a duty to act in the best interests of all shareholders. That means a merger cannot happen simply because Musk wants it.
GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson also believes expectations are too optimistic. According to him, even if both companies decided to merge, the process would likely take two to three years. A deal of this size would require approvals from regulators in several countries, including China, making it a lengthy and complicated process.
Johnson warned that some of Tesla's recent share gains may be linked to hopes of a SpaceX merger. If those expectations fade, he believes Tesla's stock could come under pressure.
Instead of focusing on merger rumors, analysts say investors should pay closer attention to Tesla's artificial intelligence projects. The company's high valuation is largely based on expectations that its AI technology will drive future growth.
Tesla officially launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025. While the service has begun operating, its expansion has been slower than many investors expected. The company is also developing Optimus, its humanoid robot, but it has not yet provided a clear timeline for when the robots could become a meaningful source of revenue.
Another factor that could affect Tesla is the political environment in the United States. Johnson believes possible investigations involving Elon Musk, if political leadership changes after the midterm elections, could create additional uncertainty for investors.
Tesla is expected to provide updates on its AI projects, robotaxi business, and Optimus robot when it reports its second-quarter earnings on July 22. Investors will closely watch the earnings call for any new details about the company's future plans.
For now, analysts say Tesla's long-term story is driven more by artificial intelligence and automation than by speculation about a possible merger with SpaceX.
