Is Maharashtra government facing a survival crisis? Here's what happened

POLITICS in Maharashtra, one of India’s big states, has taken an uncertain twist as Eknath Shinde, one of the state government’s cabinet ministers and a senior leader of the Shiv Sena, was found decamping in Surat in neighbouring Gujarat with several state legislators of the party.

Is this an ominous sign for Maharashtra’s Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government which includes besides the Sena, parties such as the Nationalist Congress Party and the Indian National Congress? The Indian Express cited sources as saying that at least 12 members of Maharashtra’s legislative assembly were with Shinde in a hotel in Surat. According to other sources, the number could be around 20.

Under the anti-defection law, if two-thirds of a party’s strength agree to merge with another party, they will not face consequences. Currently, the Sena has 55 legislators in Maharashtra assembly. If the rebels eye a merger with the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has been trying to gain from the ruling coalition’s unrest, 37 of them have to come together to ensure that they are not disqualified under the defection law.

The BJP, which is a fierce competitor of the Sena in Maharashtra despite the fact that both parties are followers of right-wing Hindutva, can seek a floor test in the assembly in that case. The saffron party has been claiming that the Sena and the Congress have lost trust of their own members and smaller allies and independent players, suggesting indirectly that the MVA government is fast losing the moral right to be in power.

“Wait and watch. The MVA will have a rough time proving its majority in a floor test,” a BJP insider was quoted as saying by the Express.

Shiv Sena sacks Shinde

Shinde, who was sacked by Sena as its legislative party leader after he caused inconvenience for the Uddhav Thackeray government. The move came after the 58-year-old leader went incommunicado with the other lawmakers a day after the MHA met a setback in the Maharashtra Legislative Council elections where the BJP did well by winning five out of 10 seats.

The sacked Sena leader was reportedly unhappy with his party as he believed he was sidelined when the leadership took important decisions on policies and strategies. His suggestion to the party to fight the Thane Municipal Corporation elections was not accepted, which alienated him more.

According to Sena insiders, chief minister Thackeray called a meeting of all the party leaders and legislators on Tuesday. The Congress and NCP have also reportedly reached out to the Sena leadership.

In the 288-member Maharashtra assembly, the MVA has 169 seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has 113 of which the BJP alone has 106. It has to be seen now whether Shinde’s rebellion could see the saffron party make major gains in this situation and pave the way for its own rise to power. The magic figure for any party or alliance to achieve in order to form government in Maharashtra is 145.