Why Karnataka election 2023 is a huge battle for Modi's BJP & opposition

The campaigning for elections in the southern Indian state of Karnataka will conclude on Monday (8) and the results will be announced on Saturday (13).

Leaders of the country's major political parties have been found to be campaigning extensively in the state. Heavyweights such as prime minister Narendra Modi and opposition leader such as Rahul Gandhi have also been found busy campaigning in the state.

While the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is keen to retain power in the state, the only one in southern India where it is in power, the Indian National Congress is also looking to return to power in the state ahead of next year's general elections.

Modi has led an intense campaign ahead of this election in which he has addressed 17 public rallies and five road shows in just 10 days. He also spent two nights in Karnataka during the campaigning.

The Congress's campaign has been led by its national president Mallikarjun Kharge and members of the Gandhi family, which has been the party's powerhouse for decades since Independence, who have travelled across the state extensively, addressing several rallies and meetings.

The BJP has looked up to the Modi factor to beat the anti-incumbency challenge, something ruling parties in Karnataka have found impossible since the mid-1980s.

The BJP, which first captured power in the state in 2008, fell short of the majority figure of 113 in the 2018 electoral battle. The Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular), another key player in the state's politics, formed a coalition government which collapsed in a year, thanks to defections. The BJP formed the government with help of members of the coalition government who joined it after it scripted a massive victory in the 2019 general elections. It has remained in power since then.

BS Yediyurappa, the BJP's towering leader from Karnataka, took oath as the chief minister in both the 2008-13 and 2019-23 terms but could not go on to complete his tenure. This time, he was succeeded by current chief minister Basavaraj Bommai after two years in 2021. Yediyurappa, who is a member of the state's politically key Lingayat community, is not contesting this year's election.

A Narayana, a professor of political science at Azim Premji University in Bengaluru, the capital of Karnataka, told the BBC that if the BJP loses this election, it will imply that the saffron party failed to make any headway in India's southern part.

He said if the BJP wins, on the other hand, it will generate energy among its workers in other southern states such as Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

For the Congress, too, a victory will be a big boost for its leaders and workers ahead of elections in some northern and central Indian states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh that are also due to go polls later this year.

Psephologist Sanjay Kumar told the BBC that the Congress is not too weak a player in Karnataka since its local leadership is strong.

And it is the stronger central leadership of the BJP vis-a-vis the Congress which makes Modi's appeal significant.

"In a sense, it reflects the high level of dependence the BJP has on the prime minister," Prof Sandeep Shastri, political analyst and pro-vice chancellor at the Jagran Lakeside University in Bhopal, told the news outlet.

"Whether it is a state election or national election, the party believes that Mr Modi alone can get the vote."

Yogendra Yadav, political analyst and member of Swaraj India party, said the implications of the election results in Karnataka will "be huge".

"The BJP has never got a majority on its own in Karnataka. If it does this time, it will tom-tom it all over the country to show that it has proof of its electoral acceptance in south India and prove that the Bharat Jodo Yatra [Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's "unity march" across India] had no impact at all," he was quoted as saying by the BBC.

"This would demoralise the entire opposition."

KARNATAKA ELECTIONS 2023:

Date: May 10 (Wednesday)

Mainly three parties: Bharatiya Janata Party, Indian National Congress, Janata Dal Secular

Total number of voters: 52.1 million (26.2 million male and 25.9 million female voters)

Total number of constituencies: 224

To win majority: 113

Results: May 13 (Saturday)