Nithya Raman leads Karen Bass 38%-32% in Los Angeles as Indian-Americans battle in US midterms

Highlights:

Voters in Texas and Florida’s Palm Beach County began casting early ballots on Monday as Indian-American candidates compete in closely watched state and congressional races ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections. From a potential historic first in the Texas Legislature to a competitive congressional contest in Florida, the races are drawing attention over representation, polling trends and millions of dollars in outside campaign spending.

In Texas, Democrat Pooja Sethi is running against Republican Jennifer Mushtaler in House District 47, an open seat. A victory would make Sethi the first Hindu and the first Indian American elected to the Texas Legislature. Sethi, an immigration lawyer who chairs the Travis County Democratic Party, previously served as chief of staff to Democratic state Representative Vikki Goodwin, who is leaving the seat to run for lieutenant governor.

Sethi won her Democratic primary with about 76 per cent of the vote. However, she would enter a Republican-controlled legislature if elected, with Republicans holding an 88-62 majority in the Texas House. No public polling was available for the race as early voting began.

Another Indian-American Democrat, Sandeep Srivastava, faces a tougher contest in Texas House District 66 against Republican incumbent Matt Shaheen. Shaheen, who chairs the House Elections Committee, won 61.1 per cent of the vote in 2024. Srivastava previously lost a congressional race to Republican Keith Self in 2024, receiving 37.5 per cent of the vote against Self’s 62.5 per cent.

Florida race draws competing forecasts and outside spending

In Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, Democrat Pia Dandiya is challenging Republican Casey Askar in a closely contested race for an open seat. Forecasting organizations differ on the outcome: Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the contest a Toss-up, while Inside Elections considers it Tilt Republican.

Polling forecasts are also divided. PollingForecast gives Dandiya a 56% chance of winning, while Call the Map gives Askar a 54% chance.

A House Majority PAC poll conducted by Impact Research from August 24 to 31 showed Dandiya leading Askar 46% to 44%. After respondents heard both candidates’ biographies, her lead widened to 49% to 44%. The poll was commissioned by a Democratic group and predates the start of early voting by several weeks.

Campaign spending has become another major feature of the race. Federal filings show that No Going Back PAC has spent approximately $3.8 million opposing Dandiya. Progressive Turnout Project, LCV Victory Fund and House Majority PAC have collectively spent more than $560,000 supporting her, according to the figures cited in the filings.

However, broader spending estimates reported by Floridian are considerably higher, underscoring the importance of distinguishing individual committees from total spending across groups. The district also spans parts of Collier, Hendry, Palm Beach and Broward counties following redistricting. Palm Beach County early voting runs through November 1 at 28 locations.

Amish Shah gains ground in Arizona

In Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, Democrat Amish Shah’s race against Republican Jay Feely has shifted in his favor in some forecasts. Inside Elections moved the contest from Toss-up to Tilt Democrat on October 15, while Cook Political Report rates it Lean Democrat and Sabato’s Crystal Ball continues to classify it as a Toss-up.

A FirstStrategic poll of 400 voters conducted on October 1 put Shah at 44.4% and Feely at 41.6%, with 14% undecided. The reported margin of error was 5.4 percentage points. The poll’s publication date should be verified before it is cited in a final report.

Outside spending remains substantial. Approximately $7.6 million has been spent opposing Shah, including $3.76 million from Safety & Affordability PAC.

The super PACs targeting Shah and Dandiya have not yet disclosed their donors. Both shifted to monthly reporting in September, with their first reports covering contributions through September 30 due October 20.

Debate dispute shapes Ohio governor’s race

In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton remain at odds over a debate. Acton has refused to share a stage with Ramaswamy, accusing him of repeatedly lying.

“I absolutely will never stand on a stage with someone who has lied in the egregious ways he has, who has a chronic history of lying,” Acton told The Vindicator.

Ramaswamy told the newspaper he “was shocked” to learn she would not debate him. Early voting is already underway, and no debate is scheduled.

Two recent polls show a divided race. A Bowling Green State University survey conducted with YouGov from September 29 to October 9 had Acton leading 50 per cent to 44 per cent. A separate poll by Republican-leaning firm co/efficient, conducted October 5-6, put Ramaswamy ahead 45 per cent to 43 per cent. Acton also raised just over $6 million in September, compared with slightly more than $3 million for Ramaswamy.

New York and Los Angeles prepare for early voting

In New York, Republican Saritha Komatireddy is challenging Democratic Attorney General Letitia James. An OnMessage Inc. poll commissioned by Komatireddy’s campaign and reported by the New York Post put James ahead 50.7% to 44.7% among likely voters. The survey of 1,000 voters was conducted October 12-14 and had a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

The campaign-sponsored poll suggests a closer contest than earlier surveys, but its findings should be considered in light of its funding. New York early voting begins October 24.

In Los Angeles, City Councilmember Nithya Raman is challenging Mayor Karen Bass. A Manhattan Institute poll published October 9 put Raman ahead 38 per cent to 32 per cent, with a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points. An earlier Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll in September had Raman at 39 per cent and Bass at 28 per cent, with one-third of voters undecided.

Los Angeles County vote centers also open October 24. Across these contests, Indian-American candidates are seeking office at several levels of government, while polling uncertainty, campaign financing and voter turnout could shape the final results on November 3.