INDIA could not carry out its decadal census exercise in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and now there are reports that it may begin in early 2025 and the data will be declared by 2026. The country has been carrying out its population count every 10 years since 1951.
While the official figures are awaited, the UN estimates last year stated that India has overtaken China to become the world's most populous country with around 1.45 billion people.
Though India has brought down its fertility rate from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to two, its population growth has been heavily lopsided.
Northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have met with limited success in bringing down fertility rates, while the five southern states - Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have brought the birth rates down to the level of most European countries. These states are also economically more prosperous.
However, the south Indian politicians now worry whether this accomplishment on the population front would turn out to be a curse.
Their immediate concern is whether the government will go ahead with the delimitation of electoral seats, which is due in 2026, once the census data is published. The previous delimitation was carried out in 1976.
This would mean redrawing electoral boundaries to reflect the current population levels. And southern states with reduced population are expected to lose out, while populous states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar would stand to gain more seats.
The opening of the new parliament building last year has stoked their fears. The new structure has an increased seating capacity of 888 Lok Sabha seats and 384 Rajya Sabha seats. India's Lok Sabha currently has 543 members, while Rajya Sabha has 245 members.
Though prime minister Narendra Modi and others have hinted that changes to fiscal shares and parliamentary seat allocations will not be rushed through, there is a sense of disquiet among many leaders in the southern states.
The chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have already called upon people to have more children.
Andhra Pradesh is even thinking of incentivising people to have more children, citing low fertility rates and ageing population. The state recently scrapped its "two-child policy" for candidates contesting local body elections.
Fiscal allocation
Apart from the shrinking electoral clout, the southern states claim that their better success in controlling population and economic prosperity has led to lower devolution of tax money.
They allege that since population is an important parameter while allocating tax money to states, they stand to lose out. They had opposed when the 15th Finance Commission tried to base the population parameter on the 2011 census, as against the 1971 used by previous commissions.
The southern states alleged that this would go against them since they controlled their population better than many other states. To address their woes, the Commission gave weight to demographic performance or success in population control.
As long as the lopsidedness in population control remains, these grievances are bound to continue.
Security personnel inspect the site in the aftermath of an attack as food stall chairs lie empty in Pahalgam, about 90 kilometres (55 miles) from Srinagar on April 23, 2025. Indian security forces in Kashmir carried out a major manhunt on April 23, a day after gunmen opened fire on tourists killing 26 people in the region's deadliest attack on civilians since 2000. Getty Images
Tourists visit Betaab Valley in Pahalgam, about 112 km south of Srinagar on June 26, 2025.Getty Images
Pilgrims gather at the Baltal Base Camp near Domel, en route to the sacred Amarnath cave in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India, on July 29, 2025. The annual Amarnath Yatra, which began on July 3, proceeds under heightened security following a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam that claimed the lives of 25 tourists and a local pony handler. Security forces have been deployed in large numbers across the pilgrimage route, with checkpoints, surveillance, and restrictions in place to safeguard the thousands of devotees undertaking the arduous journey. The Amarnath Yatra is one of the most important Hindu pilgrimages, drawing worshippers from across India to the high-altitude Himalayan shrine dedicated to Lord Shiva. Despite the threat of violence and challenging terrain, pilgrims continue their spiritual trek, determined to complete the sacred journey under the shadow of grief and resilience.Getty Images
