- Tuesday, April 23, 2024
By: Shubham Ghosh
In what would be a disappointing forecast for the UK’s ruling Conservative Party, prime minister Rishi Sunak and 15 ministers of his cabinet are at risk of losing their seats in a general election debacle, polling data shared by The Independent have shown.
However, wavering voters could still throw them a lifeline as one report found that the high proportion of wavering voters – those who said “don’t know” in surveys – typically lean heavily to the Tories.
Besides Sunak who took over as the premier succeeding Liz Truss in October — the third prime minister Britain had in 2022 — deputy prime minister Dominic Raab and health secretary Steve Barclay are also at risk of losing the next election which is likely to be held in 2024, an exclusive seat-by-seat analysis has found.
Among other leaders who could also lose are foreign secretary James Cleverly, business secretary Grant Shapps, defence secretary Ben Wallace, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt and environment secretary Therese Coffey, according to the Focaldata polling for Best for Britain.
Only five cabinet ministers would manage to cling on, the poll said. They are: chancellor of the exchequer Jeremy Hunt, secretary of state for levelling up, housing and communities Michael Gove, secretary of state for international trade Kemi Badenoch, chairman of the Conservative Party and minister without portfolio Nadhim Zawahi and home secretary Suella Braverman.
All other Tory parliamentarians in the present cabinet are at risk of losing their seats to Labour opponents – except Raab, who would lose to the Liberal Democrats in Esher and Walton, and Scottish secretary Alister Jack, who could lose to the SNP in Dumfries and Galloway.
“Sunak’s cabinet deserve nothing short of a wipeout,” Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, a group campaigning for internationalist values and for closer ties with the European Union, was quoted as saying by the report.
“But wavering voters could throw them a lifeline, and so Keir Starmer must take nothing for granted and avoid alienating Labour support by drawing unnecessary red lines on Brexit.”
However, the high proportion of uncertain voters still gives the Conservative Party a chance of making the poll a close call, said Smith.
Despite the dire polling for Sunak’s party, analysis by Best for Britain has revealed that Labour’s mammoth lead over the Tories could be more fragile than one thought previously.
The group’s Wavering Wall report found that the high proportion of wavering voters – those who said “don’t know” in surveys – typically lean heavily to the Tories and could still back them at the next general election.
The multilevel regression with poststratification polls carried out by Focaldata show Labour is on course to win 517 seats at the next election but the victory is cut to only 353 seats, a majority of fewer than 60, when the impact of the “don’t know” voters is considered.
