Highlights:
India and Canada are pushing to wrap up a long-awaited trade agreement by the end of 2026, and the next few weeks could prove decisive. Here's what you need to know.
Indian and Canadian negotiators have started the fifth round of talks on a proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, or CEPA, in Ottawa. The five-day negotiations are expected to run through October 9.
India's commerce secretary Rajesh Agarwal could travel to Canada as early as October 8 to join the effort, according to an Indian government official.
What is CEPA?
CEPA is a broad trade agreement that would cut or eliminate tariffs on a wide range of goods traded between the two countries. It could also make it easier for skilled professionals to move between India and Canada, and encourage more investment in both directions.
What could it mean for the Indian community in Canada?
Canada is home to about 2.9 million people of Indian origin and more than 427,000 Indian students, so closer ties could matter well beyond trade figures.
Easier movement for skilled professionals could benefit workers and employers with links to both countries. Lower tariffs could also reduce costs for businesses that import or export goods, potentially including the Indian products many families buy in Canada.
The details, including exactly which professions and goods would be covered, have not yet been made public.
What do the two countries trade?
India's main exports to Canada include pharmaceuticals, iron and steel, seafood, cotton garments, electronics and chemicals. Canada mainly sends India pulses, pearls and semi-precious stones, coal, fertilizers, paper and crude petroleum.
Services also play a major role. India's service exports to Canada are led by telecommunications, computer and information services, and other business services.
How big is the trade relationship?
It's smaller than many expect, and it shrank last year. Bilateral trade in goods fell 8.23% to $7.95 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year, down from $8.7 billion the year before.
The picture was mixed. India's exports to Canada rose 10.63% to $4.67 billion, while imports from Canada fell 26.14% to $3.28 billion.
Investment is also modest. Canada invested about $4.8 billion in India through foreign direct investment between April 2000 and June 2026.
What comes next?
Several high-level visits are lined up:
- This week: India's Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal may visit Canada during the Ottawa talks.
- Later this month: Canada's Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu is expected in New Delhi with a 300-member business delegation. He met Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal in Mumbai last month to review progress.
- Around December: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Canada, according to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Will the deal be done by the end of the year?
That's the goal, but it isn't guaranteed. Both sides are aiming to finish by the end of 2026. With negotiators meeting this week, ministers traveling and a possible Modi visit in December, the coming months will show whether the long-pending agreement finally crosses the finish line.
