Midterm elections 2026: What’s at stake as Americans vote on Trump’s second term

• Polls favor Democrats to win the House; Senate control uncertain
• Democrats need to gain four Senate seats to take control
• Close races in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Alaska and Maine
• A record 57 million Americans voted early

AMERICANS vote Tuesday in midterm elections that will deliver a verdict on the first two years of President Donald Trump’s second term, with polls and nonpartisan forecasters favoring Democrats to win the House of Representatives and the Senate up for grabs.

All 435 House seats and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are on the ballot, along with three dozen governors’ races and thousands of state and local contests. A record 57 million Americans had voted early.

History is against Trump’s Republicans. The president’s party has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections since World War II. Trump’s approval rating is near its lowest levels, weighed down by frustration over the war with Iran and rising fuel prices.

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“This is the last day before the midterm elections, the most important midterm I believe in our lifetime,” Trump said in Washington on Monday.

What’s at stake

Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, so Democrats need to gain four seats to take control.

Polling analysis firm Decision Desk HQ projects a Democratic House majority of 241-194 and a narrower 52-48 Democratic Senate, though with considerable uncertainty. Final New York Times/Siena polls showed Democrats ahead in all seven closely watched Senate races, but five leads were within the margin of error.

A Democratic Congress could block Trump’s legislative agenda, open investigations into his administration and, in the Senate, block his appointments, including any Supreme Court nominees.

“If we didn’t win, I veto everything,” Trump told the New York Post’s Pod Force One podcast.

Key Senate races

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, 42, faces Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers, 63. On Sunday, Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the primary to El-Sayed, endorsed Rogers after a dispute over Israel-related rhetoric. El-Sayed would be the country’s first Muslim senator. Trump has called him a jihadist, a claim for which he has offered no evidence.

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In Texas, Democrat James Talarico, 37, is challenging Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 63, who has been backed by heavy spending from Elon Musk.

In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton, 62, a megachurch pastor, holds a narrow polling lead over Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, 66, in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century.

In Alaska, the New York Times reported that Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign helped recruit a third candidate who shares the name of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Peltola denies involvement. The Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation, and a judge dismissed its lawsuit to block certification of the results.

In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins, 73, seeks a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, 58.

Other competitive races are in Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and South Carolina, all held by Republicans.

The battle for the House

Nearly 50 House races are seen as competitive, most on Republican turf, including districts Trump won by double digits in 2024. A Trump-backed effort to redraw district maps in several states appears not to have produced the gains Republicans expected.

Closing arguments

Trump has held more than two dozen rallies since October, mostly in states he won easily, and has urged supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”

“The Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history,” he said.

Polls show voters are most concerned about affordability and disapprove of Trump’s handling of it, after his tariffs and the Iran war pushed up costs.

Trump devoted much of his final speech Monday to his renovation of Washington’s Reflecting Pool. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer called it a “pathetic closing message.”

Democrats remain cautious. Sen. Raphael Warnock described the party’s mood to CNN as “nauseously optimistic.”

Yvonne Clouser, a Republican supporter in Texas, told AFP she was unworried by the polls. “We’re going to win. As a matter of fact, we’ve probably already won,” she said.

Concerns over the count

Democrats have warned that Trump, who has long falsely claimed US elections are rigged, may challenge the results if Republicans lose. The Justice Department sued in California to block ballots it says may be invalid. The Supreme Court on Monday rejected the administration’s request for an emergency order in the case.

More than $11 billion has been spent on political advertising, with Musk contributing nearly half a billion dollars to Republican efforts.

(With inputs from agencies)