• Thursday, March 28, 2024

HEADLINE STORY

Why Modi’s BJP, which is on a roll, has already launched campaign for 2024 general elections

A cut-out of Indian prime minister Narendra Modi at a rally of the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in the state of Uttar Pradesh. (Photo by Ritesh Shukla/Getty Images)

By: Shubham Ghosh

The next general elections in India are little over a year away and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by prime minister Narendra Modi looks to be settled on a strong turf to deliver a good show.

Yet, as 2023 began, the BJP has been seen to be going on an accelerating mode to give the pre-poll build-up a push, particularly in  a few states.

JP Nadda, the saffron party’s national president, addressed a rally in the eastern state of Bihar on Tuesday (3) where he attacked the state government led by chief minister Nitish Kumar saying “jungle raj” (anarchy) has returned to the state. This was the BJP leader’s first visit to the state after Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) broke away from the saffron party to join hands with old foe Rashtriya Janata Dal to form a ‘Mahagathbandhan’ (grand-alliance) government.

“Nitish Kumar has betrayed the people of Bihar. He disrespected and insulted the mandate of the people of Bihar. People of Bihar will reply to this disrespect in a democratic manner,” Nadda said, claiming that Bihar’s development has been hit in the last five months since Kumar ended the partnership with the BJP.

“Since the formation of the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ government, not a day goes without hearing about murders, loot, kidnapping, rape and other crimes. There is a complete breakdown in law and order in the state,” Nadda reportedly said.

Bihar is not the only state where Nadda has targeted the opponent.

He also went to Chandrapur and Aurangabad in the western state of Maharashtra the same day. These regions are under the control of the opposition parties and it is believed Nadda specifically targeted them with a plan to make inroads.

In Chandrapur, the BJP lost to opponent Indian National Congress in the 2019 general elections. The Aurangabad Lok Sabha constituency, on the other hand, was a bastion of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena outfit for a long time. However, in 2019, the Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen captured it.

After the Shiv Sena split last June, the BJP and the Balasahebanachi Shiv Sena led by Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde are reportedly eyeing this seat in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra.

The BJP’s campaign for the 2024 general elections has already kicked off and the party is reportedly focusing on the “vulnerable” seats, which have gone up from 144 (in the middle of 2022) to 160 now – based on its internal assessment.

In Bihar, the BJP, JD (U) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) teamed up as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2019 polls and bagged 39 out of 40 seats. The Congress won the remaining one. Party-wise, 17 went to the BJP, 16 to JD(U) and as many to LJP. After the end of the alliance, even if the BJP retains 17 of those seats, which will be challenging, it will be on shaky grounds in 22.

In Maharashtra which sends 48 representatives to the Lok Sabha, 23 were wrested by the BJP in 2019 and 18 by its united Shiv Sena alliance partner. However, after the Sena’s split, the scenario might have turned tricky for the BJP. In some seats, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena faction may allow the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party to beat the BJP or Shinde candidates. As per the BJP’s internal assessment, the number of “vulnerable seats” in the state are 11.

In Uttar Pradesh, India’s most politically significant state, the BJP produced a phenomenal show by winning 62 out of the 80 seats (while its ally Apna Dal won two) – despite the Samajwadi party, Bahujan Samaj Party, and Rashtriya Lok Dal joining hands. But yet, the tally of the NDA’s seats reduced by 10 (it won 72 seats in 2014). Although there are no signs of the opposition forming a coalition again ahead of the 2024 battle, the BJP is not taking things lightly. There are 10 seats where it looks vulnerable in UP, according to the internal assessment.

In the eastern state of West Bengal which has remained challenging for the BJP even in times of Modi, the “difficult” Lok Sabha seats for the party are 24.

In Telangana, it is five; in Punjab, 3; while one each in Himachal, Gujarat, Tripura, and Daman and Diu.

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